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Market
Comment
Mortgage
bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates in
check. We started on a positive note Monday as stocks showed
continued weakness. Stronger than expected producer inflation
data Tuesday erased the good start, core PPI rose 0.3% versus an
expected 0.1% increase. Tame consumer inflation readings
Wednesday tempered some of the fears. Weekly jobless claims
missed the mark with an increase of 205K versus an expected 226K
reading. The 30Y Treasury bond auction showed solid foreign
demand. Retail sales rose 0.2% as expected. Industrial
production and capacity use data came in as expected and didn’t
move things. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with
discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| NAHB Housing Index |
Monday,
Dec. 17,
10:00 am, et
|
59.8
|
Moderately Important.
A measure of single family housing.
Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Housing Starts |
Tuesday,
Dec. 18,
8:30 am, et
|
1225K
|
Important. A
measure of housing sector strength.
Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Fed Meeting Adjourns |
Wednesday,
Dec. 19,
2:15 pm, et
|
25 basis point hike
|
Important. Most
expect the Fed to raise rates.
Volatility may surround the adjournment of this
meeting.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday,
Dec. 20,
8:30 am, et
|
205K
|
Important. An
indication of employment.
Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Leading Economic Indicators |
Thursday,
Dec. 20,
10:00 am, et
|
Up 0.4%
|
Important. An
indication of future economic activity.
Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Thursday,
Dec. 20,
10:00 am, et
|
13.2
|
Moderately important.
A survey of business conditions in the Northeast.
Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
Friday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 1.2%
|
Important. An
indication of the demand for “big ticket” items.
Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Q3 GDP |
Friday,
Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 3.6%
|
Very important.
The aggregate measure of US economic production.
Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Personal Income and Outlays |
Friday,
Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
|
Up
0.5%,
Up 0.8%
|
Important. A
measure of consumers’ ability to spend.
Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| PCE Core Inflation |
Friday,
Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.2%
|
Important. A
measure of price increases for all domestic personal
consumption. Weaker
figure may help rates improve.
|
Income and Outlays
The personal income and
outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA). The data
is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of
future consumer demand. The
personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and
salaries. The outlays
component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services.
Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into
consumer economic standing and consumption.
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2018. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market
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