Newsletter-December 17th, 2018    
Provided by
Fred Olson
Fred Olson
Mortgage Options
180 S EUCLID AVE
PASADENA, CA 91101
Phone: (818) 429-4313
Fax: (626) 446-4076
E-Mail: fredolson@sbcglobal.net
 
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates in check.  We started on a positive note Monday as stocks showed continued weakness.  Stronger than expected producer inflation data Tuesday erased the good start, core PPI rose 0.3% versus an expected 0.1% increase.  Tame consumer inflation readings Wednesday tempered some of the fears.  Weekly jobless claims missed the mark with an increase of 205K versus an expected 226K reading.  The 30Y Treasury bond auction showed solid foreign demand.  Retail sales rose 0.2% as expected.  Industrial production and capacity use data came in as expected and didn’t move things.  Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

NAHB Housing Index

Monday, Dec. 17,
10:00 am, et

59.8

Moderately Important.  A measure of single family housing.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Housing Starts

Tuesday, Dec. 18,
8:30 am, et

1225K

Important.  A measure of housing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, Dec. 19,
2:15 pm, et

25 basis point hike

Important.  Most expect the Fed to raise rates.  Volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Dec. 20,
8:30 am, et

205K Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators

Thursday, Dec. 20,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.4% Important.  An indication of future economic activity.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey

Thursday, Dec. 20,
10:00 am, et

13.2

Moderately important.  A survey of business conditions in the Northeast.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Durable Goods Orders

Friday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et

Up 1.2% Important.  An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Q3 GDP

Friday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et

Up 3.6%

Very important.  The aggregate measure of US economic production.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Personal Income and Outlays

Friday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.5%,
Up 0.8%

Important.  A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation

Friday, Dec. 21,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.2% Important.  A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption.  Weaker figure may help rates improve.

Income and Outlays

The personal income and outlays release is a monthly report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  The data is important because it is thought to provide a solid indication of future consumer demand.  The personal income component is primarily a measure of wages and salaries.  The outlays component is primarily a measure of spending on goods and services.  Together the figures provide analysts valuable insight into consumer economic standing and consumption.


To unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in the subject line.


Copyright 2018. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

 
   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-December 17th, 2018