Newsletter-October 15th, 2018     
Provided by
Fred Olson
Fred Olson
Mortgage Options
180 S EUCLID AVE
PASADENA, CA 91101
Phone: (818) 429-4313
Fax: (626) 446-4076
E-Mail: fredolson@sbcglobal.net
 
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which held rates in check. Rates were higher Tuesday after the extended holiday weekend. Selling pressure tied to strength in the recent employment report set the tone for trading early in the week. Producer prices rose 0.2% as expected. The core, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.2% as expected. Consumer prices rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.2% increase. The core rose 0.1% versus the expected 0.2% increase. Weekly jobless claims were 214K versus the expected 205K. The 3Y and 10Y auctions were weaker than average. The 30Y auction showed solid foreign demand. Consumer sentiment was a lower than expected 99. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Retail Sales

Monday, Oct. 15,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.3%

Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Industrial Production

Tuesday, Oct. 16,
9:15 am, et

Up 0.2%

Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
Capacity Utilization

Tuesday, Oct. 16,
9:15 am, et 

78.3%

Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
NAHB Housing Index

Tuesday, Oct. 16,
10:00 am, et

67 Moderately Important. A measure of single family housing. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Housing Starts

Wednesday, Oct. 17,
8:30 am, et

1285K Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Fed Minutes

Wednesday, Oct. 17,
2:00 pm, et 

None Important. Details of the last Fed meeting will be thoroughly analyzed.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Oct. 18,
8:30 am, et 

212K Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Philadelphia Fed Survey

Thursday, Oct. 18,
10:00 am, et

23 Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Leading Economic Indicators

Thursday, Oct. 18,
10:00 am, et

Up 0.2% Important. An indication of future economic activity. A smaller increase may lead to lower rates.
Existing Home Sales

Friday, Oct. 19,
10:00 am, et 

5.33M Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.

Stock Jolt

The stock market got clobbered last week and the upward pressure on mortgage interest rates was temporarily halted. The DOW closed down 56 points Tuesday, 832 points Wednesday, and 546 points Thursday. While many traders moved to the sidelines there was some MBS buying late Wednesday and Thursday amid the stock weakness. The halt in escalating rates is likely to be temporary as the Fed is clear they will continue down the rate hike path. Now is a great time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at these levels.

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   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-October 15th, 2018