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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week unchanged to slightly lower which put slight upward pressure on rates. The NAHB Housing Index was weaker than expected. Housing starts were 1350K. Analysts expected 1330K. Existing home sales were 5.43M versus the expected 5.55M. LEI rose 0.2% versus the expected 0.4% increase. Philadelphia Fed was 19.9 versus the expected 27. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.1% which was in line with estimates. Weekly jobless claims were 218K, expected 220K. Continuing claims were 1723K versus the prior 1701K. We ended the week unchanged to worse by 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| New Home Sales |
Monday, June 25,
10:00 am, et
|
668K
|
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, June 26,
10:00 am, et
|
128
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
Wednesday, June 27,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.9%
|
Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Q1 GDP |
Thursday, June 28,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 2.2%
|
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, June 28,
8:30 am, et
|
219K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Personal Income and Outlays |
Friday, June 29,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.3%
|
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| PCE Core Inflation |
Friday, June 29,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.2%
|
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, June 29,
10:00 am, et
|
99.3
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
Gross
Domestic Product
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report each quarter. GDP is one the most important reports during any given quarter. The initial report is often based on incomplete data. Therefore, additional revisions are released over the following two months.
GDP is a measure of US economic output and spending. The report is significant in that it provides investors, analysts, traders, and economists with a comprehensive report of the direction of the economy. In addition, it also influences the decisions of Federal Reserve policy makers, Congressional budget employees, and corporate financial planners. GDP is the sum total of goods and services produced by the United States.
The GDP release has the ability to swing the financial markets in the short term. Be cautious heading into the GDP release in the event the data comes in against us.
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