|
Market
Comment
Mortgage
bond prices finished the week near unchanged which kept rates in
check. Rates started the weak higher despite tame data.
Factory orders were lower than expected. Productivity rose
1.3% versus and expected 1.7% increase. Unit labor costs rose
0.9% versus the expected 1.7%. The 3Y Treasury auction had
weak foreign demand. The U.S. ran a trade deficit of $49.3B.
That data was better than estimates of $54B. The Treasury
auction of $19B of 30-year bonds was weak, both indicators of demand
were below average. Stocks shot higher Tuesday and Wednesday
only to lose most of the gains Thursday afternoon in a 221-point
selloff. Weekly jobless claims were higher than expected.
Claims came in at 234K versus 220K. Mortgage interest rates
finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| Consumer Price Index |
Wednesday,
Feb. 13,
8:30 am, et
|
Up
0.1%,
Core up 0.1%
|
Important. A
measure of inflation at the consumer level.
Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
|
| Retail Sales-Dec. |
Thursday,
Feb. 14,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 1.2%
|
Important. A
measure of consumer demand.
A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower
mortgage rates.
|
| Producer Price Index |
Thursday,
Feb. 14,
8:30 am, et
|
Up
0.1%,
Core up 0.1%
|
Important. An
indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level.
Weaker figures may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday,
Feb. 14,
8:30 am, et
|
235K
|
Important. An
indication of employment.
Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Business Inventories |
Thursday,
Feb. 14,
10:00 am, et
|
Up 0.5%
|
Low importance.
An indication of stored-up capacity.
A significantly larger increase may lead to lower
rates.
|
| Retail Sales-Jan. |
Friday,
Feb. 15,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.4%
|
Important. A
measure of consumer demand.
A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower
mortgage rates.
|
| Industrial Production |
Friday,
Feb. 15,
9:15 am, et
|
Up 0.4%
|
Important. A
measure of manufacturing sector strength.
A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates.
|
| Capacity Utilization |
Friday,
Feb. 15,
9:15 am, et
|
78.8%
|
Important. A
figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary.
Weaker figure may lead to lower rates.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday,
Feb. 15,
10:00 am, et
|
91.1
|
Important. An
indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.
Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
Debt and Deficit
The Federal budget deficit
is the difference between what the US Government spends each year
and what they bring in. The
national debt is the total of all unpaid obligations borrowed by the
US Government. The
Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit to
be about $900 billion in 2019 and to exceed $1 trillion each year
beginning in 2022. The
US is bleeding red ink with annual deficits added to $22T in debt.
The national debt accelerated after the 2008 financial crisis.
The total has increased $2T over the past 2 years.
The cost to service the growing debt sucks money out of tax
receipts that could be used for other things like replacing the
crumbling infrastructure.
To
unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in
the subject line.
Copyright
2019. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market
Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com
The information contained herein is
believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are
written or implied.
|
