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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly lower which put a little upward pressure on rates. Trading was quiet throughout most of the week with very narrow changes. New York Fed President Dudley recently said that he is pleased with the U.S. economy and noted that inflation should pick up. This started the week with a slightly negative tone. Oil prices hit lows for the year which countered the inflation talk. Existing home sales were 5.62M versus the expected 5.52M. Weekly jobless claims were 241K. Analysts looked for a reading of 240K. The FHFA House Price index rose 0.7% versus the expected 0.6% increase. New home sales rose 610K versus the expected 599K increase. We ended the week worse by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
Monday, June 26,
8:30 am, et
|
Down 0.5%
|
Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, June 27,
10:00 am, et
|
118
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Treasury Auctions Begin |
Tuesday, June 27,
1:15 pm, et
|
None
|
Important. 2Y Notes on Tuesday, 5Y Notes on Wednesday, and 7Y Notes on Thursday.
|
| Q1 GDP Revision |
Wednesday, June 28,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 1.4%
|
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, June 29,
8:30 am, et
|
240K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Personal Income and Outlays |
Friday, June 30,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.1%
|
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| PCE Core Inflation |
Friday, June 30,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.1%
|
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, June 30,
10:00 am, et
|
95
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
Gross
Domestic Product
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report each quarter. GDP is one the most important reports during any given quarter. The initial report is often based on incomplete data. Therefore, additional revisions are released over the following two months.
GDP is a measure of US economic output and spending. The report is significant in that it provides investors, analysts, traders, and economists with a comprehensive report of the direction of the economy. In addition, it also influences the decisions of Federal Reserve policy makers, Congressional budget employees, and corporate financial planners. GDP is the sum total of goods and services produced by the United States.
The GDP release has the ability to swing the financial markets in the short term. Be cautious heading into the GDP release in the event the data comes in against us.
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